There's a post structure that makes controversial tech predictions feel inevitable.
It's not data-driven analysis. It's not expert quotes. It's something that bypasses logical objections and speaks directly to pattern recognition.
The framework?
Using unexpected historical analogies from completely unrelated fields to make your tech prediction feel like it already happened.
It's like showing people the future through the past.
Why it's crushing it? Because it transforms abstract fears into concrete patterns:
Skeptics can't argue with history that already happened.
Readers see the pattern instead of debating the prediction.
The analogy does the heavy lifting while you look insightful.
And everyone remembers the comparison forever.
Here's a prime example from a recent post:
Bjorn had 1.4k followers when he posted about Swedish carpenters.
Not Swedish tech. Not Swedish startups. Swedish home renovation TV from the 90s.
48 hours later: 2.9k followers. One historical analogy nearly doubled his audience.
Let’s see why this format worked so well.
🧠 The Psychology Behind Hidden Patterns
The Pattern Recognition Hack
Our brains are prediction machines that love patterns.
When you show a pattern from Field A (home renovation) that matches Field B (software development), the brain automatically completes the pattern. It's not a conscious choice - it's neurological autopilot.
Readers think they're drawing their own conclusions when really you've architected the only logical path.
The Emotional Distance Buffer
Tech predictions trigger defensive responses.
"AI will change everything" makes engineers defensive.
But "Remember what happened with Swedish carpenters?" creates emotional distance. They're analyzing history, not defending their future.
This buffer lets controversial ideas slip past mental defenses.
The Memorability Multiplier
Abstract predictions fade. Concrete stories stick.
No one remembers "AI will increase demand for engineers by 47%."
Plenty will remember "that Swedish renovation show that created a carpenter shortage."
The unexpected comparison becomes a mental bookmark readers can't forget.
🧱 Anatomy of the Perfect Hidden Pattern
Let's break down why this post structure works so brilliantly:
The Direct Contrarian Opening
AI "vibe" coding will cause a surge in demand for software engineers.
This opening:
Makes a clear, memorable claim that demands explanation (authority)
Drops the controversial take immediately -no warming up (surprise)
Contradicts the dominant narrative everyone's hearing (curiosity)
The Context Bridge
My LinkedIn feed was full of AI coding predictions today, so here's mine:
This bridge:
Positions you as joining an existing debate
Sets up your take as one voice among many (humble positioning)
Grounds the post in current conversations (not random theorizing)
The Expanded Prediction
I predict that AI's productivity boost in programming will increase the need for software, devops and MLops engineers, not replace them.
This prediction:
Acknowledges the obvious truth (AI boosts productivity)
Flips only the conclusion (smart contrarian, not delusional)
Uses "not replace them" to directly address the fear
The Pattern Story
Years ago, a Swedish TV show showed the country how easy it is to renovate your house. Lots of people got inspired to renovate their houses by themselves. As people failed to complete these renovations, demand for carpenters and other trades skyrocketed.
This analogy:
Shows clear cause-and-effect anyone can follow
Includes the crucial word "failed" (acknowledges reality)
Uses a completely unrelated field (prevents defensive reactions)
The Direct Connection
I think the same thing is going to happen for vibe coding and software engineers.
This connection:
Keeps it simple (no complex explanation needed)
Makes the pattern application explicit
Uses "I think" for personal tone
The Practical Conclusion
Lots of people will use AI to build tools, websites, etc. Someone will have to maintain and improve those. The need for good software engineering practices, maintenance, troubleshooting, etc. is going to be higher than ever.
This conclusion:
Uses inevitable logic ("someone will have to")
Expands beyond fixing to maintaining and improving
Ends on an optimistic note for engineers
🪜 Step-by-Step Implementation Guide
This step-by-step is for free subscribers who want to craft their own contrarian analogy posts. If you're a paid subscriber, feel free to jump straight to the prompt template - it'll do the heavy lifting for you.
Step 1: Identify the Controversial Prediction
(30 seconds)
Pick a tech prediction that triggers emotional responses:
Industries being disrupted
Jobs being eliminated/created
Skills becoming obsolete/essential
Step 2: Find Your Historical Twin
(5 minutes)
Search for non-tech examples with similar patterns:
DIY movements that created expert demand
Automation that increased human jobs
Simplification that led to complexity
Step 3: Build the Cause-Effect Chain
(2 minutes)
Map the historical pattern:
Initial trigger (accessibility tool)
Mass adoption phase
Complexity revelation
Expert demand surge
Step 4: Create the Direct Mapping
(2 minutes)
Connect each historical element to your prediction:
Swedish DIY show = AI coding tools
Amateur renovators = Vibe coders
Failed projects = Broken production code
Carpenter shortage = Engineer demand surge
Step 5: Add Specificity
(3 minutes)
Include:
Exact numbers/percentages
Timeline predictions
Specific job titles affected
Real company examples
Step 6: Write Your Closing
(1 minute)
Create one quotable line that encapsulates your entire argument:
AI makes starting easy. Easy starting creates complex failures.
OR
The pattern is clear. The only question is timing.
OR
Building is 10% of the work. Maintaining is 90%.
🔄 Advanced Variations
Variation 1: The Reverse Pattern
Start with the outcome and work backwards to show inevitability.
In 2010, Sweden had 47% more carpenters than in 2005.
The reason? A home renovation TV show that aired 5 years earlier.
Here's why AI coding tools are about to create the same surge in software engineers:
Variation 2: The "Everyone Missed This" Angle
Position yourself as the only one who sees the historical parallel.
Everyone's debating whether AI will replace programmers.
They're asking the wrong question.
I studied what happened when Excel 'replaced' accountants in the 1980s:
Variation 3: The Multi-Industry Pattern
Show the same pattern across 5+ unrelated industries for maximum proof.
The 'Accessibility Paradox' strikes every industry the same way:
📸 Instagram (2010): 'Everyone's a photographer!'
→ Professional photography rates doubled by 2015
🎬 YouTube (2005): 'Anyone can make videos!'
→ Video production became a $45B industry
📝 Blogging (2003): 'Everyone's a writer!'
→ Content strategy emerged as six-figure career
💻 AI Coding (2024): 'Everyone can code!'
→ [You already know what happens next]
Variation 4: The Personal Experience Bridge
I watched this movie before.
In 2008, I was a video editor when Final Cut Pro 'democratized' video editing.
My boss said we'd all be unemployed within two years.
Instead, I had to turn down work.
Why? Every business suddenly needed video.
They'd try it themselves, create unwatchable content, then panic-hire professionals to fix it.
❌ Mistakes to Avoid
Mistake 1: The Forced Analogy
Don't stretch connections. The parallel should feel obvious once stated.
❌ Bad: "AI coding is like the Renaissance because both involve creation..."
✅ Good: "AI coding is like WordPress - easy start, expert finish"
Mistake 2: The Academic Lecture
Keep it conversational. You're sharing an insight, not teaching history.
❌ Bad: "In 1847, the Industrial Revolution's mechanization of textile production..."
✅ Good: "Remember when ATMs were supposed to replace bank tellers?"
Mistake 3: The Weak Comparison
One powerful analogy beats five mediocre comparisons.
❌ Bad: "AI is like calculators, and smartphones, and the internet..."
✅ Good: "AI coding is like Instagram - everyone becomes a photographer until they need a real one"
Mistake 4: The Missing Bridge
Always explicitly connect the historical pattern to the current situation.
❌ Bad: Tell Swedish carpenter story, then jump to "AI is transformative!"
✅ Good: "Just like those DIY renovators, AI coders will need rescue"
Mistake 5: The Complexity Trap
Simple patterns work best. If it takes paragraphs to explain, find a better analogy.
❌ Bad: "It's like the Byzantine Empire's tax system reform of 1025..."
✅ Good: "It's like GPS replacing maps but creating more drivers"'
💬 Here’s the Prompt
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